BEHIND THE IRAN HEADLINES Series, February 17, 2025, Alireza Jafarzadeh, NCRI-US Deputy Director
Iran’s clerical regime is teetering on the brink of collapse. The 2022 uprising, following years of sustained protests, has shattered the illusion of stability, exposing a populace yearning for change. The regime’s desperate attempts to project strength, reminiscent of the Shah’s pre-revolution bravado, ring hollow against the backdrop of widespread discontent. Just as the Shah’s lavish displays and iron-fisted rule masked a fragile foundation, so too does Khamenei’s regime rely on brute force and propaganda to maintain its grip on power.
The parallels between 1979 and today are striking. Both regimes prioritized repression over legitimacy, using secret police and pervasive surveillance to silence dissent. The Shah’s SAVAK and Khamenei’s IRGC, along with extensive internet censorship, aim to instill fear and control. Both leaders also sought to portray their pro-democracy opponents as agents of foreign powers.
However, a crucial difference exists: today’s main opposition, the National Council of Resistance of Iran, NCRI, and its principal member, the Mojahedin-e Khalq, the MEK, is more organized and globally recognized with a clear practical roadmap for the overthrow of the theocracy and peacefully transfer sovereignty to the Iranian people. They represent a formidable force, undeterred by censorship and committed to establish a democratic free republic.
The West’s miscalculation regarding the Shah’s stability and its even more disastrous handling of the clerical regime through appeasement should not be repeated. If the international community applies sufficient pressure, targeting the IRGC and the MOIS, the regime’s collapse could be achieved faster. The Iranian resistance, through its Resistance Units, is prepared to manage a transition of power, preventing chaos and ensuring stability after the downfall of the current theocracy.
The world must recognize this inevitability. is on the brink of regime change. If sufficient pressure is applied to strip off the world’s largest state sponsor of terrorism’s ability to execute and torture, the Iranian people will deliver freedom to their nation, stability to the region, and security to the world.